5 factors fueling Detroit Tigers improbable run for a MLB playoff spot

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Andy Dirks on how Tigers' relaxed confidence leads to winning baseball

Andy Dirks, former Tigers player and current TV analyst, discusses what the clubhouse is like for a red-hot winning team. Full pod out now.

The Detroit Tigers have been on a magical run over the last month and now find themselves squarely in the thick of the race for their first MLB playoff appearance in 10 years.

The Tigers are 28-11 since Aug. 11, the best record in baseball in that span, and have gone from eight games under .500 to nine games above at 83-74 with a 1½-game lead for the final AL wild-card spot after winning Tuesday. Now, Detroit has five games left in its homestand against the Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White Sox in the driver's seat for a spot in the MLB playoffs for the first time since 2014.

But how exactly have the Tigers gone from the bottom half of the AL standings with a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs to holding a spot in the final week?

Well, it's been a perfect storm of different factors. The pitching staff from top to bottom has been elite despite injuries to Reese Olson and Casey Mize plus trading away Jack Flaherty at the deadline. The lineup comprised of young hitters has improved from one of the lowest-scoring offenses in the first half of the season and put together timely, clutch performances in big spots. Behind it all is a coaching staff led by manager A.J. Hinch pushing the right buttons while the Twins and Royals both hit a skid down the stretch.

Here's a deeper look at five factors that have defined the Tigers' improbable run that has them in a playoff position despite selling at the trade deadline and sitting 10 games back in the wild-card race six weeks ago (statistics entering Tuesday).

No. 5: Bullpen magic

The Tigers' team ERA in the last 30 days is 2.58, the best mark in the majors in that time. The next closest team is the New York Mets at 2.86 and only four teams are below an ERA of 3.

Of course, the pitching staff is led by the likely AL Cy Young, Tarik Skubal (more on him in a bit), but have been down to two true starters at times post-Flaherty trade. Hinch creatively navigated around injuries with bullpen games, opening pitchers and bulk relievers.

Tigers relief pitchers have a 2.42 ERA collectively since the beginning of August with a .211 average against and 1.0 WHIP, per Fangraphs. The Tigers' bullpen has a season-long ERA of 3.60, the fifth-best in MLB, but jumped up to second since the start of August, just behind the Rays at 2.67.

It's been a collective effort from the entire pitching staff. Since Aug. 1, seven Tigers relief pitchers have thrown at least 20 innings and six — Brant Hurter, Tyler Holton, Jason Foley, Brenan Hanifee, Will Vest and Bryan Sammons — have an ERA of 2.70 or lower. Holton has been one of the team MVPs as an opener, bulk reliever, and closer at times and holds a team-best 0.79 ERA during this run. Another who missed the cutoff because of starting is Beau Brieske, who has a 1.75 ERA in 25.2 innings since the beginning of August.

And, there's a new relief weapon available in Jackson Jobe, the top pitching prospect in baseball.

JEFF SEIDEL: Jackson Jobe to Detroit Tigers? Oh man, this amazing week just got even better

No. 4: Timely hitting

The Tigers were a poor hitting team in the first half.

They would go long stretches of not being able to score, interspersed with a random blow-up game once a week throughout the lean periods of May and June. But now, they have been more consistent and found ways to cobble runs together in clutch moments.

Before the All-Star break, the Tigers ranked 18th in runs scored (413), 24th in batting average (.234) and 22nd in on-base plus slugging (.686). In September, the Tigers rank 15th in runs (82) with a .236 average (16th) and .685 OPS (12th).

The numbers haven't changed much during the hot streak, but the production has been spread to the opportune moments. They have scored 2 or fewer runs six times in September (2-4 record) and have put together rallies against the Orioles, Royals, Athletics, and Padres, just to name some recent ones. The dominant pitching also made 1-0 wins possible.

No. 3: Parker Meadows' resurgence in center field

Parker Meadows was the Opening Day starter in center field but struggled out of the gates and found himself in Triple-A Toledo shortly after the season began working on how to be a positive at the plate.

He spent two months grinding in the minors before being called back up on July 5. Since then, he's been arguably the Tigers' most important position player.

The Tigers are 33-12 in his 45 appearances since coming back. Meadows has hit .291 with six home runs and 24 RBIs while being one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball. He's saved multiple would-be home runs, made diving catches all over the grass and generally covers the massive center field at Comerica with the speed and silkiness of a gazelle, while getting clutch hits, like the go-ahead grand slam against the Padres.

No. 2: Improvements at short stop

The Tigers' shortstop issue has improved since the trade deadline with the addition of Trey Sweeney. He came over in the Flaherty trade as the second chip behind catcher Thayron Liranzo, who finished the season with High-A West Michigan. He joined as a Ariple-A shortstop and quickly moved up to the majors to rotate with Javier Báez.

He became the everyday shortstop after Báez went on the IL with lumbar and hip discomfort in August. He has been a positive addition with a 0.6 fWAR in Detroit, especially compared to Báez's minus-0.7 on the season, and has a .247 batting average with 17 RBIs in 31 appearances. Defensively, he has been solid at shortstop and potentially saved the season with his sliding, knee-knocking catch in the rally past the Orioles.

No. 1: Cy Young candidate Tarik Skubal

Of course, Skubal gets some of the praise for the run. The shoo-in for the AL Cy Young has continued to be a dominant presence every time his name appears on the lineup card and has ate innings, along with Montero, to give the bullpen rest.

Skubal has maintained his pace for the AL pitching triple crown during the run, leading in wins (17), strikeouts (221), ERA (2.48) and fWAR (5.6). His steady presence has led to wins when he starts while going five innings or more in all 10 starts since the beginning of August, including another dominant effort on Tuesday, holding the Tampa Bay Rays scoreless in a 2-1 win.

"We're taking it day by day," Skubal told reporters after his last start, a 4-2 win over the Royals. "We need to keep winning, and hopefully, we can control our own destiny down the stretch."

Jared Ramsey is a sports reporter for the Detroit Free Press covering the city's professional teams, the state's two flagship universities and more. Follow Jared on X @jared_ramsey22, and email him at jramsey@freepress.com.