What to watch for at the Liberal leadership debate

Liberal leadership candidates will square off on the debate stage Monday and Tuesday nights in Montreal, as hopefuls try to convince Canadians they can lead the party to victory and take on U.S. President Donald Trump.

The four contenders will try to make the case for why they should be the next prime minister during two debates — the first in French, the second in English — in a matchup that will feature a political “newbie,” a friendly rivalry and the Trump factor.

The debate themes are:

1. Canada’s place in the world
2. Growing a strong economy
3. Supporting Canadians
4. Climate Action

“I think everything almost is going to come back to Trump in some way,” pollster and CEO of Abacus Data David Coletto said.

“Mark Carney will really be the newbie on that stage. And so I think there will be a lot of pressure on him.”

Carney, the former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor, is widely considered the favourite, while former deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland is viewed as his main rival and is trying to stage a comeback.

The two are longtime friends. Carney is the godfather of Freeland’s son. The two candidates have largely avoided attacking each other during their campaigns, but will ultimately go toe-to-toe on the debate stage.

The other leadership hopefuls are former government House leader Karina Gould, and former Montreal MP and businessman Frank Baylis.

Former Brampton, Ont., MP Ruby Dhalla was set to take the stage as well but was disqualified from the race just days before the debate. She is the second Liberal leadership candidate kicked out of the contest.

Dhalla’s last-minute departure is one of several twists and turns in a race for the party’s top job, which has largely been dominated by Trump’s repeated tariff threats.

The existential crisis is expected to be the ballot box issue in the next federal election, which could be triggered in a matter of weeks.

Prior to Trump singling out the U.S.’s closest ally, national polls suggested the Conservatives would secure a seemingly easy victory against the Liberals.

But that gap appears to have tightened, with Carney — the former banker who was at the helm during the 2008 recession — gaining popularity.

Former liberal staffer and director of public relations at the consulting firm TACT Jeremy Ghio says he doesn’t know if Canadians are necessarily “excited” about Carney, but they are gravitating towards him.

“What people are looking for after nine years of Justin Trudeau is maybe calm and reassuring. Mark Carney looks calm and looks reassuring.”

Carney is gaining ground, particularly in Quebec, where voters are shifting away from the separatist party the Bloc Québécois and towards the Liberals, according to polls.

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“It’s a complete 180 right now for the polling intentions in Quebec” with voters still “resisting” the blue wave that has swept most of the country, Ghio adds.

It’s a reality Coletto sees reflected in his polling.

“Quebecers were the most resistant to embracing Pierre Poilievre. I think that is truer today than it’s ever been.”

Whether Carney, who has never held public office, can spar in both languages against veteran politicians like Freeland and Gould remains to be seen.

“We’ve seen his French improve since the beginning of this leadership campaign” but his fluency will be “tested,” Ghio said.

Gould, 37, is the youngest candidate. She has held multiple portfolios in cabinet, was seen as the Liberal attack dog against Poilievre and is considered the best French speaker among the candidates.

While the contenders are bilingual, none is francophone, which is relatively rare for the Liberal party.

Coletto says they’ll need to demonstrate “they can speak to Quebecers as well as they can speak to Canadians.”

Carney has already faced accusations of muddled messaging about pipelines, saying in English he would use emergency powers to build them, and then suggesting in French that he would consult with the provinces first.

The conversation around pipelines appears to have shifted, as Canadians look to reduce energy dependence on the U.S. and diversify markets, but it’s still a hard sell in Quebec.

Amy Janzwood, a political science professor at McGill’s Bieler School of Environment, calls the changing discourse “surprising” but points to “effective” Conservative messaging.

“The growth of oil sands in Canada is slowing down. And the demand for our heavy oil is very, very uncertain. And so now this doesn’t make economic sense,” Janzwood said.

But Coletto says Trump’s threats to Canada’s economy and sovereignty have revived the debate.

“I think what Donald Trump has done has also made it possible for Liberals to talk about pipelines. They wouldn’t have, I think, unless we were in the situation we were in. But they still have to be mindful that that topic doesn’t have as much support in Quebec,” he said.

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