Oscars 2025: See Our Predictions for Every Winner

The Oscars 2025 will cap off one of the most turbulent awards seasons in recent memory. From unprecedented natural disasters to unprecedented PR crises, from the reemergence of one of our earliest front-runners to the Brazilian wild card that could upend what little conventional wisdom we’ve gathered these last few months, there hasn’t been a moment for things to feel settled. Both lead-acting races feel thrillingly up for grabs—see: Timothée Chalamet denting Adrien Brody’s momentum on Sunday at the SAG Awards, or Demi Moore and Mikey Madison trading major wins all month—while best picture appears close too, with Conclave pulling off an eleventh hour surge that has it nipping at Anora’s clacking heels.

All of which is to say that this year, Awards Insider’s experts needed to put a great deal of thought, analysis, and, sure, bravery into predicting almost every Oscar category. Below, we make and explain our final Oscar winner picks. Get ready for some nail-biters.

PREDICTED WINNER: AnoraThe BrutalistA Complete UnknownConclaveDune: Part TwoEmilia PérezI’m Still HereNickel BoysThe SubstanceWicked

For the majority of this awards season, it seemed that a single Oscar front-runner might never emerge. Each film had its merits, with a few pulling slightly ahead of the pack: The Brutalist was seen as the film that cinephiles would want to support. Conclave was the crowd-pleaser. The Substance was the bold dark horse. A Complete Unknown seemed like a potential late bloomer. When the Oscar nominations were announced, Emilia Pérez became the de facto film to beat due to its impressive haul, even though the movie itself was polarizing for both audiences and voters. And after the Karla Sofía Gascón scandal knocked the movie off its pedestal, the race one again seemed unclear.

That is, until the weekend of the PGA and DGA awards—when Anora was named best picture by both Hollywood’s producers and its directors. The film’s momentum has felt unstoppable ever since. Sean Baker’s eighth feature film went on to clean up at the Independent Spirit Awards; its star, Mikey Madison, finally started winning awards as well. But when Conclave came back with wins at BAFTA and the SAG Awards, it became clear that this would remain a two-film race until the very end. Best picture could easily go to either film, making it one of the tightest races we’ve seen in years.

But the fact is that Anora, which won the Palme d’Or way back in May, has been simmering this whole time as a crowd-pleasing film that’s both thrilling and heartbreaking, giving viewers exactly what they want out of a movie. Only three films have won both the Palme d’Or and the best-picture Oscar—The Lost Weekend, Marty, and Parasite—and we expect Anora to join their ranks on Sunday. —Rebecca Ford

PREDICTED WINNER: Anora, Sean BakerThe Brutalist, Brady CorbetA Complete Unknown, James MangoldEmilia Pérez, Jacques AudiardThe Substance, Coralie Fargeat

For a while now, this has been a two-man race between Brady Corbet and Sean Baker. There’s much admiration for Corbet, who managed to make a three-and-a-half-hour epic for just $10 million; he has won directing prizes at the Venice International Film Festival, the Golden Globes, and the BAFTA Awards. Baker, meanwhile, won at the DGA Awards. The two filmmakers have a lot in common: Both accept their awards with passionate speeches about independent film, director’s cuts, and protecting the filmmaking experience. But Baker has been an indie darling much longer than Corbet has, and it feels as if the Academy is finally ready to honor him for his work—and for his continued fight for theatrical releases. —R.F.

PREDICTED WINNER: Adrien Brody, The BrutalistTimothée Chalamet, A Complete UnknownColman Domingo, Sing SingRalph Fiennes, ConclaveSebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Brody has proven a resilient front-runner in this category despite the seeming surge of his toughest competition. Chalamet came on strong as A Complete Unknown overperformed in nominations, and the SAG Awards—where, aside from a nod for Brody, The Brutalist was snubbed entirely—just honored Chalamet with a pivotal win. Ralph Fiennes, meanwhile, had the backing of the year’s BAFTA- and SAG-winning movie, though that failed to translate into a best-actor win with either voting body. Whether or not The Brutalist goes on to win much else, Brody has been a consistent, clear choice among a range of groups, intra-industry or not. Chalamet has proven himself to be a strong challenger. But even so, it feels hard to believe that the Oscars won’t see Brody’s story through. —David Canfield

PREDICTED WINNER: Demi Moore, The SubstanceMikey Madison, AnoraCynthia Erivo, WickedKarla Sofía Gascón, Emilia PérezFernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

For the third year in a row, we’re going into Oscar night with a deliciously tight race on our hands. Moore got out to an early lead with her Golden Globe and Critics Choice wins, but the industry’s first big vote—for the BAFTAs, an indicator of where the Academy’s international support lies—broke for Madison, right on the heels of Anora establishing itself as an overall front-runner. That in and of itself is a potent combination to close the deal at the Oscars. But then SAG swung the race back in Moore’s direction. And none of this has been able to factor in the singular candidacy of Fernanda Torres, who won the Golden Globe but wasn’t nominated anywhere else significant—in large part because I’m Still Here wasn’t seen widely enough.