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The slumping New York Islanders face the Maple Leafs tonight in Toronto, where the Leafs have been among the best teams in the NHL this season.

The slumping New York Islanders face the Maple Leafs tonight in Toronto, where the Leafs have been among the best teams in the NHL this season.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has won four home games in a row, although it lost to New York in overtime at Scotiabank Arena back in November. The Isles only have one win in their past eight games.

Check out our top Islanders vs. Maple Leafs picks for January 23.

Odds as of 9:12 a.m. on 01/23/2023.

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs picks

Best Bet : Islanders under 2.5 goals (-137)

There are surely many issues that caused New York’s 1-5-3 slide in the past two-and-a-half weeks, and a lot of them seem to point to the offence.

The Islanders have scored just 22 goals in 11 games in January, leading to some dreadful metrics for the month (courtesy of Natural Stat Trick):

  • 1.97 goals per 60 (31st)
  • 2.57 xG per 60 (29th)
  • 11.2 high-danger chances per 60 (26th)

Toronto likely won’t make things easy on a New York team looking to break through, given that the Maple Leafs rank ninth in save percentage (.908), seventh in shot attempts allowed per 60 (54.50) and seventh in goals allowed per 60 (2.62).

In their previous matchup this season, the Isles were held to two goals in regulation before slipping one more through in the extra frame. We don’t expect a repeat performance this time around.

Key stat: The Islanders have scored fewer than three goals in eight of their past nine games.

Quick picks

Maple Leafs 60-min moneyline (-143): Backing the Leafs on the standard moneyline is too juiced for our liking, but this is a price we can deal with. Toronto is 17-3-4 at home this season — the third-best home record in the NHL — and that includes 14 regulation wins.

New York has lost four of its past six road games in regulation and has a mediocre 10-11-3 road record this year.

Under 6 goals (-113): Fading one offence directly makes it easier to fade offence as a whole. And that’s been the more profitable play for these teams in 2022-23, as they’ve combined to push or hit the under in 55 of 95 total games (57.9%).

Only five goals were scored in their November matchup, and New York’s Ilya Sorokin (2.34 GAA, .924 SV%) should do his part to keep this game under, too.


Jordan Horrobin writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star's parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @JordanHorrobin

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.

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