NFL Week 1 betting: Last-minute bets to place before kickoff ESPN

Your fantasy lineup is ready, the snacks are set, and a glorious afternoon of football viewing lies ahead of you.

All that's left: making some last-minute bets. But we want to be a little smart about it, right? This close to kickoff, we ought to be somewhat picky about the types of bets we're making. Regular old game spreads and totals have been bet into all week -- they're mature markets with high volume, and therefore difficult to beat. We want to spice up Sunday with some action, but in spots with a chance for an edge. Hence, our new last-minute bets column, where we dive deep into sportsbooks' offerings to find those angles still available to hit shortly before kickoff.

Often (but not always) that will mean looking for the obscure. It's what I like betting most, anyway. Last season I built, bet and tracked a game-level sacks model that was profitable. In 2023, I figured: Let's expand!

As an analytics writer at ESPN, anything I want to bet is going to be, at absolute minimum, quantitatively informed. But what I mostly mean is building more statistical models -- which is what I did over the summer for stats like solo tackles and assisted tackles and quarterback interceptions that can be bet as props. I plan to add more as we go. I focused on defensive props because they are smaller markets that usually aren't posted until later in the week, and thus, are much better last-minute bets to make.

Will they work? I don't know. That's the true, honest answer. But we're going to find out together. One commitment I'll make here is to track the results of the bets we make, assuming one unit for each bet. Each Sunday I'll post results for the previous week and cumulatively for the season, and broken down by category of bet. So come along for the ride, and let's see how we do.

All odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise specified.

QB interceptions

Justin Herbert over 0.5 interceptions (+126)

This surprised me, but my model put Herbert at just under 54% to throw an interception on Sunday -- something of a shock given not only his track record (just a 1.3% interception rate last year) and because the Chargers are slight favorites. But while the rate is low, the model reasonably expects a lot of pass attempts from Herbert in what should be a high-scoring game. Those attempts all come with a small amount of risk, and that adds up. Plus, I think Miami's defense is underrated given its talent and new coordinator in Vic Fangio.

Justin Fields under 0.5 interceptions (-101)

In somewhat of an inverse situation to what I described above, Fields posted a very high 3.5% interception rate last season, but just isn't expected to make as many throws. Contrast Fields and Herbert's pass attempt props: Fields sits at 25.5 while Herbert is at 37.5. Fields simply has fewer chances to throw a pick. Plus, he also (like Herbert) has the benefit of being a slight favorite. When you're winning, you throw less and take fewer risks.

Sacks

Jaelan Phillips under 0.75 sacks (-145 at DraftKings), Christian Wilkins under 0.75 sacks (-230 at DraftKings)

I'm grouping these two together because I'm going to let you in on a secret that applies to both of them: The key to sack props is the quarterback. Yes, better pass-rushers are more likely to record sacks than worse pass-rushers. But quarterbacks control so much of the process. Justin Fields took sacks at four times the clip Tom Brady did last year -- which means there's just that many more sacks to go around when facing him. Here, the Dolphins are facing Herbert, who is strong at sack avoidance (and the Chargers have a good offensive line, too). That doesn't appear to be fully reflected in the line. I make the fair price on Phillips -231 and on Wilkins -397.

Cameron Jordan over 0.75 sacks (+185 at DraftKings)

I'm a little surprised to find myself on Jordan's over considering his 6% pass rush win rate at edge ranked last at the position last year. But PRWR isn't everything: finishing sacks is a skill, too, and one Jordan has, with at least 7.5 sacks in each of the past 11 seasons. But the real reason to like the over here is that Jordan gets to face Ryan Tannehill, who took sacks at a high 9% clip last year, and an incredibly weak Titans offensive line. My model gives Jordan a 40% chance (fair price: +150) to record at least one sack.

Dalvin Tomlinson under 0.25 sacks (-298 at DraftKings)

This one is pretty straight-forward: Tomlinson is a three-technique with an 8% pass rush win rate last season that has never recorded more than 3.5 sacks in a season. I make his chances of getting zero sacks 85.8%, or -602.

T.J. Watt under 0.25 sacks (+195 at FanDuel)

This is probably the best value bet I'll share today. At that +195 price, every single player this week would be a value according to my model. I make Watt just +104 to record zero sacks and to get up to the +165 range my model typically tops out at, he would have to face a quarterback that takes a ton of sacks. But Watt is facing Brock Purdy, who took sacks at a slightly lower than average 5.9% last year. From my perspective, this is the easiest bet on the board to make.

Myles Garrett under 0.25 sacks (+260 at FanDuel)

Just like Watt's, this price is just way, way too good. Garrett has an extremely strong forecast from the model -- a 59.6% chance to record at least 0.25 sacks. But that translates to a fair price of just -147 (or +147 to bet against him), so +260 is a steal.

Tackles

Myles Garrett under 3.5 tackles + assists (+114 at DraftKings)

Garrett made 8.1% of the Browns' tackles last season when he was on the field, a high rate for an edge player. That resulted in 60 tackles for him, or 3.75 per game. But remember, we're looking for medians, not means. Despite that 3.75 average, Garrett went over this line in only six of 16 games. Plus, the Bengals figure to pass a lot, and those plays are less likely to result in Garrett tackles. My model estimates a mean of 3.2 tackles for Garrett, so I'll happily take plus-money on the under.

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Jamin Davis under 8.5 tackles + assists (-130 at DraftKings)

One reassuring development about this new model is how aligned with the betting market it is in Week 1. That's why the number for Davis really stands out: I projected just 6.6 tackles for him, well below this line. One way that could happen is an expected increase in playing time, but I don't see that for Davis, who was on the field 86% of the time in games he played last year. Davis' 13% tackle share when on the field isn't anything special and trailed his new linebacker teammate Cody Barton (15% with Seattle).

Ja'Whaun Bentley under 7.5 tackles + assists (-105 at DraftKings)

Similar situation here: Bentley also had just a 13% tackle share last year. Plus, the Eagles are more of a passing team than most realize; they just happened to be winning all the time last year, so they had to run the ball. When win probability was between 15% and 85%, the Eagles ranked 12th in design pass rate, which works against Bentley. I project Bentley to record 6.3 tackles + assists.

Kyle Dugger over 4.5 tackles + assists (-135 at BetMGM)

Different positions rack up tackles at different rates, but a player like Dugger -- who lines up all over -- can't be put into a box. Instead of classifying players by position, my model actually considers their entire alignment, which gives me extra confidence in my Dugger projection of 5.6 tackles + assists.

Roquan Smith over 8.5 tackles + assists (-125 at DraftKings)

I have Smith projected at a massive 11.1 tackles + assists, the most of any player in Week 1. Smith recorded 17% of his team's tackles when on the field last year (a team high) and is an exceptional run defender in general: He ranked fifth among linebackers in run stop win rate last season and second from Week 9 on, when he was on the Ravens.

Teasers

Pittsburgh Steelers (+8.5), Cleveland Browns (+8) and New York Jets (+8.5) three-team, six-point teaser (+160)

Value teasers make for good last-minute bets because they are playing off the efficiency of the market. If we can cross the critical numbers of 3 and 7, some teasers can be worth it, because the price is the same as another 6-point move that wasn't as important. By betting late in the week, we know how much the move is worth (as opposed to earlier in the week, when there's more uncertainty). All three legs here cross 3 and 7, but I like to run the numbers by Unabated's teaser calculator to make sure it's a positive expected value bet. This one checked out.

Weekly Specials

Denver Broncos to score most points (40-1) among teams playing Sunday/Monday

I know, I know. This one makes me shudder, too. Russell Wilson leading the Broncos to the highest scoring total? But I think of this bet as essentially a derivative -- using the market's information against itself. What I mean by that: The Broncos' implied team total between the game's total (43.5) and spread (-3.5) is not at all bad. And I built a simple model based off the spread and total alone to determine the probability of a team recording the most points in a given week. The result? The Broncos have a 4.4% shot to pull it off, which is quite a bit greater than the 2.4% breakeven percentage the 40-1 odds imply (that 4.4% is based on when the total was 44, not 43.5).

Is the model too simple? Probably. But I think especially given this is Week 1 -- when uncertainty is high -- the fact that it thought the favorites were all overpriced makes sense to me.

Buffalo Bills to score fewest points (100-1) among teams playing Sunday/Monday)

OK, we're really swinging for the fences now. Do I see this happening? Not really. But am I pretty happy about the fact that we're getting a team at 100-1 playing against what should be an excellent defense? Yes I am. My model makes it a 2.1% chance. I'll take the shot.

Game Props

Miami Dolphins to call first timeout vs. Chargers (-115 at BetMGM)

Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel averaged 3.1 "unnecessary" timeouts between offense and defense last year, second most among all head coaches, according to Tom Bliss of the NFL's analytics group. Unnecessary timeouts are defined as those to avoid a delay of game or to change a play (as opposed to time saving or for a challenge). Meanwhile, Brandon Staley has averaged 1.5 unnecessary timeouts per game, fewest among head coaches last year. That makes me think it's worth paying the -115 to bet that McDaniel calls the first one Sunday.