Commentary: The Oscars 2025 predictions The Aquinian

Movies have been pretty good this year, eh?

On March 2, the 97th Oscars will take place and the controversial movie Emilia Pérez dominates the award show with 13 nominations. The Brutalist and Wicked each received 10 nominations.

You also have competitive films such as Anora, Conclave, A Complete Unknown, The Substance and Dune: Part Two leading the way with more than five nominations each.

Aside from one nominee —I’m looking at you Emilia Pérez—, all of this year’s nominees are wonderful films that will strongly contend for each award. 

For context, Emilia Pérez is a complete mess of a film. Not only is the plot unengaging, it’s all over the place and a slog to get through. 

It’s a musical and yet there is not a single enjoyable song on the track list. There is not a positive trait about it outside of Zoe Saldaña’s acting.

This film made history by being the first film with an openly transgender person to get nominated for an Oscar acting category and it is the most nominated non-English-language film in Oscars history.

There being so many good movies on the table makes Best Picture one of the most difficult categories of the ceremony. I could be wrong about every single prediction and I wouldn’t be mad about it, as long as Emilia Pérez doesn’t win anything. 

Who’s going to take home the most awards? Who will walk away empty-handed? How many times will I make fun of Emilia Pérez throughout this commentary? Who knows.

For fun, I’m going to include my favourite Letterboxd review for each film I talk about. 

I believe Adrien Brody is going to take Best Actor for his performance as László Tóth in The Brutalist. His portrayal of a Hungarian-Jewish Holocaust survivor who emigrates to the United States to try to rebuild his life and live the ‘American dream’ is unbelievably captivating. 

With a run time of 215 minutes, Brody’s performance keeps you enthralled throughout the film. He’s more than deserving of this award.

“This made me want to light a cigarette and stare at a wall for two hours. Five stars,” said Marty from Letterboxd. 

Best Actress is a little tougher, but I am going to give the edge to Mikey Madison for her performance in Anora. Her character, Ani, is a young sex worker who falls in love with the son of a Russian oligarch. 

Her ‘Cinderella story’ falls apart devastatingly in this romantic tragicomedy. Ani is taken on an emotional rollercoaster throughout the film and Madison plays it spectacularly. 

​​Karsten, another Letterboxd aficionado, simply wrote “Oh…” in response to the movie.

Despite the magical return of Wallace and Gromit in Vengeance Most Fowl and the record-breaking Inside Out 2, DreamWorks’ The Wild Robot should take home Best Animated Feature.

It just makes you feel so warm and fuzzy inside. The complete opposite of Emilia Pérez. 

The themes of motherly love in this film captivate an audience in a way that reinstates the magic of animated film. 

The beautiful hand-drawn animation style and fantastic score just draw you in. You can’t help but want to call your mom by the end.

Haunted Hippie said, “Dumb robot goose movie made me CRY.”

Best Director is a category that I always struggle with — this year is especially a tough one. 

I’m going to go with Coralie Fargeat for The Substance. Mainly due to the film’s bold and creative directing style. 

Fargeat creates an unforgettable film by implementing camera shots that emphasize the thriller aspects of the movie. 

She got the best out of her leading actresses and it just all comes together cohesively at the end. The unique visual style balances with the themes of the film so well that I’m willing to throw a shot in the dark and say the underdog will take it home. 

“I feel trauma bonded with everyone in that cinema today,” said Aaron on his Letterboxd forum. 

Last but not least, Best Picture is probably the biggest toss-up of them all. 

It feels as if every major film nominated succeeds in a particular area this year.

The Brutalist and Anora are led by their phenomenal cast. The Wild Robot makes you feel good through its strong imagery and The Substance makes you uncomfortable through its strong direction. Emilia Pérez makes you feel bad, but that’s just because it’s an awful movie. 

But there’s one movie that seems to do everything well. Although not reflected by the number of nominations it received, I think Conclave has a fantastic shot at taking home the biggest award of the night. 

Created by German auteur Edward Berger, Conclave is a packed story that gets everything you want in a film. The acting and directing are phenomenal, which bodes well for its very strong and straightforward story structure. 

Winning Best Film at the British Academy Film Awards may have paved the way for Conclave to leave this year’s Oscars ceremony with their Best Picture trophy in hand. 

“Accidentally became important at work and it’s ruining my conclave,” said Bobby. 

Lightning round time.

Best Supporting Actor and Actress should go to Kieran Culkin for his role in A Real Pain and Ariana Grande for her fantastic performance in Wicked. 

Anora likely takes home Best Original Screenplay and Conclave would almost certainly win Best Adapted Screenplay.

Cinematography is a dual between The Brutalist and Nosferatu, but I think the latter does such a perfect job of bringing the audience into the gothic horror film that it deserves at least this award.

Now it’s just a waiting game to see how wrong I am.