How MLB teams fared after losing top young free agents

The team has developed a homegrown star who is young enough to reasonably demand a deal spanning a decade plus that would be almost entirely in his prime — and that contract is likely to come from another team.

Players with Guerrero’s combination of youth and production almost always get extended. Sometimes, like in the case of Giancarlo Stanton, they get dealt after their first team gives them a mega contract. Or they earn an extension that buys out a couple of free-agent years before getting the big payday elsewhere, as was the case with Albert Pujols.

They almost never debut, excel throughout their minimum salary and arbitration years, then walk straight to free agency. 

Looking at the 50 largest contracts in MLB history — a list that Guerrero is sure to join soon, barring a disastrous 2025 — there are only four situations that meet the following broad criteria:

· The player spent his entire MLB career with one team before hitting free agency

· The player was age 28 or younger in his first season with his new team

To better understand the cost of potentially letting Guerrero walk, we’ll examine the results of allowing those players to leave the building and whether their teams may have regretted doing so.

Alex Rodriguez 

Contract: 10 years, $252 million

Signed: 2000-01 offseason

How much did it hurt the Mariners?: This is a surprisingly tricky question to answer, considering Seattle won the most regular-season games in MLB history the season after Rodriguez left, then failed to make the playoffs once between 2002 and 2021.

There is no doubt Rodriguez’s presence would have helped the team immensely if he’d stayed in Seattle for another decade. Even so, there’s only one season where having Rodriguez likely would’ve been the difference between making and missing the playoffs (2003, when the team fell two games short).

From a fan interest perspective, Rodriguez’s departure coincided with the arrival of Ichiro Suzuki, a phenomenon who likely softened the blow of losing A-Rod.

Did it create a long-term position of need?: Although Carlos Guillen filled in capably from 2001 to 2003 — averaging 2.1 fWAR per season and never dropping below 1.5 — the loss of Rodriguez left Rich Aurilia and Yuniesky Betancourt to hold down the position from 2004-2009, which undoubtedly hurt Seattle.

Regret-o-Meter: 5/10. The money that Rodriguez got from the Texas Rangers was so far outside the norm then that keeping him probably wasn’t realistic for Seattle. The impact of his departure was a mixed bag.

Contract: 13 years, $330 million

Signed: 2018-19 offseason

How much did it hurt the Nationals?: Not much. The Nationals won the 2019 World Series immediately after Harper left. A 20-year-old Juan Soto helped fill the void after Harper left, and the team went on a magical run in the playoffs behind its dual aces Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer.

Did it create a long-term position of need?: Not really. Even though the Nationals haven’t posted a winning percentage above .436 since their championship season, they’ve gotten competent production from their outfielders, with that group posting a wRC+ of 107 or better in four of the seasons since Harper left.

The Philadelphia Phillies slugger looks like he’ll be a 1B/DH for most of his current contract, though, and it's notable that Washington’s first baseman contributed 0.0 fWAR or less to the Nationals in three of the six seasons since Harper departed.

Regret-o-Meter: 2/10. 

The World Series title guarantees limited regrets, and in the years following 2019, the team hasn’t been close enough to the playoff race for Harper’s presence to be useful. Perhaps in an alternate universe, keeping Harper makes the team more inclined to keep Soto, and they build around that duo, but it’s tough to imagine.

Contract: 3 years, $105 million (with an opt-out after the first year that was exercised)

Signed: 2021-22 offseason

How much did it hurt the Astros?: Relatively little. The team won the World Series immediately after Correa signed with Minnesota and has earned a division title in each season since.

It was helpful that the team could elevate Jeremy Peña, who played at least 136 games at shortstop in each of the past three seasons with a fWAR between 2.8 and 3.3 in each campaign. 

Peña is not a player of Correa’s calibre, but immediately slotting an above-average regular into the lineup on a league-minimum salary made Houston’s life easier from a team-building standpoint.

Did it create a long-term position of need?: With Peña under team control through 2027, the Astros are in good shape.

Regret-O-Meter: 0/10. 

Correa has generally been good for Minnesota, but he underperformed with the bat in 2023 and struggled to stay healthy in 2024. Durability is a significant concern for him, and the Astros keep winning without the star shortstop.

Contract: 10 years, $325 million

Signed: 2021-22 offseason

How much did it hurt the Dodgers?: At times, a fair amount. Los Angeles underperformed in both the 2022 and 2023 playoffs and likely could’ve used their 2020 World Series MVP. Watching him win that award again with the Texas Rangers in 2023 likely wasn’t fun for the Dodgers front office.

Still, Los Angeles earned 211 regular-season wins in that time and then won the World Series in 2024. There isn’t much outcry about Seager’s absence these days.

Did it create a long-term position of need?: To some degree. Trea Turner was excellent for the team in 2022, but since the beginning of the 2023 season, the team has given serviceable veteran Miguel Rojas more than twice as much playing time at shortstop than any other player.

Mookie Betts has also spent a suboptimal amount of time at short due to Seager’s departure.

Regret-O-Meter: 3/10. 

You could argue for a full 0 for the defending champs, but there have been moments when they really could’ve used Seager, and his contract would be palatable to a team that spends as much as Los Angeles.

Is there a takeaway here?

When we’re looking at a sample size of four, it’s never wise to draw an immensely confident conclusion. The fact the road Toronto is on with Vladdy is so rare says more than the outcomes when it’s happened, but it may be fair to say that letting a young star walk isn’t a franchise death sentence it can appear to be.

That doesn’t mean the Blue Jays should get a pass if Guerrero signs with the Boston Red Sox next winter. Toronto doesn’t have a Soto or Ichiro emerging, and it isn’t a player-development juggernaut like the Astros. There is no way in which the Blue Jays compare favourably to the Dodgers.

Context is important, and losing Vladdy would probably be more detrimental to Toronto than losing the stars mentioned above was to their teams. That doesn’t mean there is no way forward for the Blue Jays if he departs. The degree of difficulty just increases. Significantly.