Tornado warning expired, severe risk continues for southern Ontario on Saturday
We’ve seen at least one tornado warning in southwestern Ontario this evening as severe thunderstorms build along a cold front pushing into the region from the west. While that tornado warning has since expired, we could see more severe thunderstorms as the evening progresses. Conditions are still favourable for one or two tornadoes in the strongest storms.SATURDAY: A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, A TORNADO THREAT IN THE SOUTHWEST
Environment and Climate Change Canada issued a tornado warning near Kincardine on the eastern shores of Lake Huron earlier this evening, as the storm showed signs of strong rotation as it moved inland. That warning expired around 6:50 p.m. EDT.
A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect for much of southwestern Ontario through Saturday evening.
While the entire region can expect a chance for thunderstorms on Saturday, the severe risk stretches from northern Ontario down toward southwestern sections.
The strongest thunderstorms could produce torrential downpours, strong wind gusts and small hail. But forecasters say there is also a conditional threat for rotating storms, which could produce one or two tornadoes. The greatest tornado chance will be near the southern Huron shores and across southwestern Ontario in the afternoon and evening.
Many of the areas expecting storms on Saturday are under a special weather statement for the potential for very heavy rain. Some spots could see 30 to 50 mm of rain this evening, with a few areas possibly picking up even higher totals.
The threat for heavy rain is the result of a deep reserve of moisture throughout the atmosphere. Thunderstorms can tap into this moisture like a reservoir, leading to excessive rainfall rates.
Look out for flash flooding during heavy rain. It’s never safe to traverse a water-covered roadway, no matter how shallow the water may appear.SUNDAY: STORM THREAT CREEPS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
Classic mid-summer weather is expected in southern Ontario for Sunday, with high temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30°C. Typical mugginess will send feel-like values into the mid- to upper-30s across the region.
The cold front will move into Quebec on Sunday, bringing a risk for thunderstorms over much of the province during the afternoon hours.
A risk for non-severe thunderstorms will remain in eastern Ontario, as well, as a result of some leftover instability. The main hazards with Sunday’s storms would be strong wind gusts, torrential rainfall, and small hail.NEXT WEEK: WARM AND FAIR TO START, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY TUESDAY
The warm, humid weather will continue early next week for southern Ontario, extending into southern Quebec by Monday.
The last week of July would typically see a seasonal high of about 27°C in Toronto. Highs next week for the city should climb into the upper 20s for the start of it, with humidex values well into the 30s during the afternoon hours. However, the warmth will be short-lived.
Temperatures are expected to be on the cool side of seasonal late next week and for the Civic Holiday long weekend.
After this weekend, the next chance for widespread showers and storms will return Tuesday night as a cold front approaches and moves across the region. There’s a potential for more storms later in the week.
The comfortable pattern will continue through early August, so we do not expect any prolonged periods of hot weather over the next couple of weeks.
Thumbnail courtesy of Lisa Witherspoon, taken in Willow Beach, Ont.
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