UFC Fight Night predictions -- Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori: Fight card, odds, live stream, start time

Saturday's UFC Fight Night main event between Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori took a few odd twists and turns in the days ahead of the bout. At Wednesday's media day in Las Vegas, Costa announced he was 211 pounds and would be unable to cut to the middleweight limit of 185 pounds. Negotiations over the weight then drifted to 190, 195, 198, and eventually, 205 pounds, with Vettori accepting every change along the way.

"So basically, I came in, ready to make weight, ready to make 185 as always," Vettori said in an Instagram video. "I came in and a little bit after, they told me Costa is overweight. First, they wanted to do 190, and 190 wasn't enough so 195 then 198, and then 198 was good for a while, we signed a contract for 195 and then he says 195 he can't make it. So we're up to 205."

It's an odd situation for the two former middleweight title challengers but one that reflects some of the struggles Costa has faced recently. After suffering a knockout loss in a one-sided fight with champion Israel Adesanya, Costa claimed he drank too much wine the night before the fight and was dealing with a hangover when he suffered his first career loss. He then pulled out of a fight with Robert Whittaker due to illness and withdrew from a planned fight with Jared Cannonier, claiming he never signed the bout agreement while tweeting, "UFC needs to pay me as main fighter to have fighting in main events. Youtubers are showing all disgrace on this business."

Can't get enough boxing and MMA? Get the latest in the world of combat sports from two of the best in the business. Subscribe to Morning Kombat with Luke Thomas and Brian Campbell for the best analysis and in-depth news, including a complete preview of UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas on Saturday below.

During fight week, Costa also claimed to have battled COVID-19 twice since the start of the pandemic while stating he would continue refusing to take the vaccine.

Vettori is also coming off a loss to Adesanya, though he managed to get to the judges' scorecards in his shot at the championship. The loss snapped a five-fight winning streak for Vettori, a streak that dated back to another decision loss to Adesanya.

"I'm making sure I'm gonna give a fight to all the fans Saturday night, and I won't let this guy get away with it. So, I accepted the fight and we're gonna f---ing do it. We're gonna slap this motherf---er, you know. We're gonna f---ing beat him. It's right for me to do it for all of us and for all the fighters who actually struggle to make weight. It was very disrespectful from his side to come in 30 pounds heavier and I'm ready, man, Let's go."

This may not be the deepest undercard UFC has ever put out, but there's still some chances for fun action. The co-main event sees a veteran showdown between Grant Dawson and Ricky Glenn at lightweight. Dawson is undefeated since reaching UFC in 2019 with two submissions and one TKO in five appearances. Glenn, meanwhile, is 3-2 in his five most recent appearances. He returned from nearly three full years of inactivity in June with a sensational knockout of Joaquim Silva.

Plus, four more fights fill out the main card on ESPN+. Jessica Rose-Clark takes on Joselyne Edwards in a women's bantamweight contest. Clark scored a TKO win in her most recent outing in September 2020. Also, Seung Woo Choi and Alex Caceres are set for a featherweight contest. Francisco Trinaldo and Dwight Grant will scrap it out in the welterweight division while Nicolae Negumereanu and Isaac Villaneuva meet in a light heavyweight tilt to open things up.

Here's the fight card for UFC Fight Night with the latest odds from Caesars Sportsbook.

UFC Fight Night card, odds Favorite Underdog Weightclass

Marvin Vettori (17-5-1) -175

Paulo Costa (13-1) +150

Light heavyweight

Grant Dawson (17-1) -440

Ricky Glenn (22-6-1) +340

Lightweight

Jessica Rose-Clark (9-6) -160

Joselyne Edwards (10-3) +135

Women's bantamweight

Seung Woo Choi (10-3) -280 Alex Caceres (18-12) +230 Featherweight Francisco Trinaldo (26-8) -135 Dwight Grant (11-3) +115 Welterweight Nicolae Negumereanu (10-1) -220 Isaac Villanueva (18-12) +180 Light heavyweight UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: Oct. 23 | Start time: 4 p.m. ETLocation: UFC Apex -- Las Vegas, NevadaTV Channel: ESPN+

Prediction

Marvin Vettori vs. Paulo Costa: What a weird situation this is. Vettori feels like the right pick just based on Costa seeming to not be right mentally since the Adesanya fight. That said, Costa has always been a huge middleweight and now is entering the fight as a light heavyweight, seemingly never having planned on cutting weight, while Vettori was taking all needed steps to get down to 185 pounds. That weight could be a big factor in Costa finding success, or could lead to him gassing out quickly. It's still probably the safest pick to go with Vettori based on the mental game and having a grinding style that could burn out Costa's iffy cardio. Pick: Marvin Vettori via UD

Who wins Costa vs. Vettori? And which picks should you parlay for a payout of 7-1? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed top picks on UFC Fight Night, all from the insider who's up nearly $9,200 on MMA picks in the past year, and find out.